The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reviewed its 2025 oil demand growth forecast downward, citing U.S. trade tariffs and planned output increases by OPEC nations.
In its April Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC now projects a demand in growth of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025, a reduction from its earlier estimate of 1.4 million bpd.
This adjustment follows a decline in oil prices, with OPEC’s crudes dropping to $66.25 per barrel on Monday from $70.85 the previous Friday. Analysts attribute the downward spiral to an increase in OPEC’s production plans and concerns over U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump, which have worsened fears of economic downturn.
OPEC said that the ongoing trade tensions could worsen market volatility but maintained its economic outlook, stating, “The global economy showed steady growth early this year, though recent trade dynamics have introduced heightened short-term uncertainty.”
The report also highlighted a March production dip of 37,000 bpd among OPEC members, bringing the total output to 41.02 million bpd. Reductions in Nigeria and Iraq contributed to the decline.
In response to market conditions, eight OPEC nations which are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, held a virtual meeting on April 3, 2025, to reaffirm plans for a gradual return of voluntary production cuts. The plan which was initially announced in December 2024 and reaffirmed in March 2025, aims to reintroduce 2.2 million bpd gradually, starting from April 2025.
The countries will begin by adjusting output by 411,000 bpd in May 2025. OPEC said the flexibility of this plan would support market stability and allow member states to “accelerate compensation” for prior overproduction. This group of countries will convene again on May 5 to finalise production levels for June.
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