As political alliances begin to take shape ahead of the 2027 general elections, Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development Festus Keyamo has cast doubt on Peter Obi’s ability to secure substantial support in northern Nigeria, asserting that the region remains firmly under the influence of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Appearing on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics, Keyamo dismissed the threat posed by the emerging opposition bloc under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which is reportedly seeking to unify Obi and Atiku Abubakar ahead of the next election.
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Keyamo was clear in his assessment: “They are going nowhere in terms of demography.
“I like what is happening; they are putting us on our toes; it is going to make us work harder, but the numbers are not looking good for them.”
He argued that the opposition is betting on combining the votes Obi and Atiku garnered in 2023 to defeat President Bola Tinubu in 2027, but insists such a plan is flawed.
“This so-called ADC, in 2027, what they are working on is to bring Peter Obi and Atiku (Abubakar) together to join those numbers and beat our over eight million votes.
“Let me tell you why it is wrong. If you make Peter Obi the deputy to Atiku, three demographic factors delivered Peter Obi in 2023, but the three will collapse.”
Keyamo outlined the three factors that he believes contributed to Obi’s strong showing in the 2023 election: “The other candidates were Muslims, and so there was only one Christian candidate, and the Christians went to one candidate,” he said.
“The South-East felt cheated, so the South-East went to one point because of the Igbo man.
“And the third demography: the Obidients, young Nigerians who felt they were angry, they wanted a younger person and all of that because the other candidates were older than him (Obi).”
He concluded that Obi’s influence would wane in a 2027 contest, especially if he were not the presidential flagbearer.
“If you put Peter Obi this time as president, he cannot penetrate the north. We have our structures in the north. We have governors and our structures in the north.”
President Tinubu, who emerged victorious in the 2023 election by defeating Atiku and Obi and assumed office in May 2023, is expected to seek a second term in 2027. His campaign would fall in line with Nigeria’s traditional two-term power rotation, with Tinubu representing the South following Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years as president from the North-West.
Meanwhile, efforts to unify the opposition gained momentum on July 2, 2025, when prominent political figures including Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, former Senate President David Mark, ex-ministers Rauf Aregbesola and Rotimi Amaechi, as well as former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, came together under the ADC to strategize a path to defeating the incumbent.
The coalition hopes to capitalize on the collective votes Atiku and Obi earned in 2023—more than 12 million combined, significantly surpassing Tinubu’s total votes, although the APC candidate was declared winner by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Critics of Tinubu’s leadership accuse his administration of poor economic management, citing rampant inflation, rising food prices, and growing hardship among ordinary Nigerians.
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